Democrat Strategist: Polling Still Favors Trump, Dooms Harris

July 30, 2024

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Democrat Strategist: Polling Still Favors Trump, Dooms Harris

A top Democrat strategist has warned that President Donald Trump is still leading Kamala Harris in the polls.

However, Julian Epstein, a former chief counsel for the House Judiciary Committee, Harris is now losing supporters in the Rust Belt, spelling doom for the Democrats.

Harris reportedly claimed the support of the necessary delegates to claim the Democrat nomination last Tuesday.

It came just two days after President Joe Biden announced he would not accept the Democrat nomination and endorsed her as his replacement in the 2024 presidential election.

Unless another Democrat candidate emerges soon, Harris will likely be facing President Donald Trump in November.

During an appearance on Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria,” Julian Epstein said that working-class voters are moving more toward Trump.

“You really have to do an average of the polls,” Epstein explained to the show’s co-host Cheryl Casone.

“If you do an average of the polls, Donald Trump is still ahead by about one to two points in the national election and still ahead in most battleground states.

“That’s according to five of the seven most recent polls.

“So, what we’ve seen is that the race has returned to the pre-debate norm where it has been stuck all year.”

Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1.7% in a national head-to-head matchup, according to the Real Clear Polling average of polls from July 5 to 25.

Trump’s lead grows to 1.8% when Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein and independent presidential candidates Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included in surveys.

By comparison, Trump held a 3.1% lead over President Joe Biden in a national head-to-head matchup before he ended his reelection bid, according to the RealClearPolling average of polls.

That lead expanded to 4.2% when Stein, Kennedy, and West were included in surveys.

“The one change that you are seeing, you know you really have to look at the crosstabs in the polls as well, and crosstabs is a fancy way for your viewers of saying you look at the demographic breakdown of what’s in the polls,” Epstein continued.

“The significant change that we’re seeing is that Kamala Harris seems to be attracting more young voters that were leaving the Democratic Party and more black voters that were also leaving the Democratic Party under Biden and that’s good for her.

“On the other hand, older voters and working-class voters seem to be moving towards Trump, that’s bad news for her.”

“The reason that’s bad news for her is because most voters in the Midwest states, the rustbelt swings, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are older and working-class,” Epstein said.

“So, essentially what has happened, as you return to the pre-debate norm, but you’ve traded a California voter for a Pennsylvania voter, which is not so good for Harris.”

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